Those wishing to go all-out for Thanksgiving this year might notice shortages and higher prices for some key food items.
While inflation has hit all types of food — grocery prices rose 13% over the past year, according to the consumer price index — some products are also being hit with the double whammy of being in short supply. Shoppers may be in for an unwelcome surprise as they prepare their holiday spreads.
The key Thanksgiving food, turkey, is facing shortages as the holiday approaches. The spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza, also known as bird flu, has hit supplies.
This year has seen a historic outbreak of the virus, with the first case of bird flu in a commercial or backyard flock since the 2014-2015 outbreak being discovered in February in a commercial turkey meat operation. In early 2022, bird flu killed about 5.4 million turkeys, according to the Department of Agriculture.
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The problem is that if just one bird gets sick with bird flu, the entire flock needs to be killed in order to prevent the pathogen from spreading. Because of the outbreaks, whole turkey inventories are the lowest approaching Thanksgiving that they have been since 2006.
Bird flu "outbreaks in the spring and an uptick in cases in the fall are taking a toll, but farmers remain dedicated to ensuring America’s food supply remains strong," American Farm Bureau Federation President Zippy Duvall said in a September warning about high prices.
Because of the diminished supply, prices for turkeys have exploded. Frozen, Grade A whole young hen, 8-16 pounds, registered at $1.72 per pound early last month, representing a 20% increase from the same time last year when the price was $1.44 per pound. Fresh boneless, skinless tom turkey breasts broke a record of $6.70 per pound in the middle of last month, more than double what it was that same time last year.
Rolls and warm butter are another staple dish every Thanksgiving. Consumers should expect to shell out much more for spreads, including margarine, this November.
Part of the blame is that milk production is down by about 1% on an annual basis from January through June, according to the USDA. Additionally, butter in U.S. storage facilities declined 22% in the 12 months ending in August.
Last year, a pound of stick butter was going for about $3.48, but that number has rapidly increased and is now clocking in at $4.72 per pound, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Margarine prices are up a jaw-dropping 44% from last September to this September, the consumer price index report for that month revealed on Thursday.
When one thinks of a thanksgiving spread, corn is usually part of the mishmash of foods. This year has been a tough one for corn crops, prompting concern about shortages. Parts of the country where corn is grown and harvested have faced drought conditions, causing crops to be less resilient than in years past.
“If the western corn belt is not as good as last year and the eastern corn belt isn’t better than last year, we are going to have a production deficit,” Brent Judisch, an Iowa farmer, told Bloomberg. “There’s no way around it.”
Family gatherings like Thanksgiving can be stressful, and many choose to drink throughout the day to get by. Because of that, beer is a beverage that is in hot demand during the holidays, but some breweries are facing difficulty making their signature fizzy products this year.
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Carbon dioxide is a key ingredient for beer, adding bubbles to the beverage. A big natural source of carbon dioxide near Jackson Dome in Mississippi has faced contamination, meaning that production from the facility had to be reduced, adding to factors that were already limiting the carbon dioxide supply.
The shortage is also being affected because mass amounts of the gas are needed to ship Pfizer’s two-shot coronavirus vaccine, given its need to be kept at extremely cold temperatures. Supply chain snarls and the war in Ukraine are also taking a toll.
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